Russia is not faltering (as media would have us believe)
This analysis is a response to a recently published Defense News article written by Noah Robertson titled: “They’ve Grown Back: How Russia Surprised the West and Rebuilt its Force”
1. The Problem
This news has strategic implications both short term and medium term that should be at first acknowledged, sure I am rooting for Ukraine too but continual under-reporting, cherry picking and false reporting will not affect the operational-strategic situation in the least.
Here is the harsh reality of the situation as assessed in August 2025:
Ukraine’s window to achieve battlefield decision is narrower — faster Russian reconstitution increases the risk that Ukraine’s relative advantage from Western aid could be eroded unless aid is sustained and scaled in key areas (munitions, air defenses, long-range fires). Armed Services Committee
NATO faces a longer-term conventional challenge in Europe. Even if Russia’s forces are qualitatively worse in some areas (training, modern C4ISR), sheer quantities of shells, refurbished armor, and increasing drone production materially raise demand on allied logistics and surge production. Business Insider RAND Corporation
Sanctions and export controls are being outflanked. Networks of rerouting and third-party supplies blunt the strategic purpose of some sanctions unless enforcement and upstream controls improve. Defense News
4. Adversary cooperation matters. Iranian and North Korean materiel already materially augments Russian fires/drone capacity — a multiplier effect that can rapidly alter battlefield calculus.
This solution set of recommendations is Diplomacy Centric with supply chain interventions leveraging export controls, because let’s face it, the usual escalate to de-escalate approach is not working. If I were designing another all unoriginal NEOCON solution set, it would probably include yet another 12-18 month front loaded security assistance package to Ukraine including the usual bundle of 1. precision guided munitions (PGM), 2. air and missile defense batteries and 3. long range strike capabilities, such as ATACMS like rockets. I am not recommending this approach.
