In recent weeks, the conflict in Ukraine and the geo-political events transpiring throughout Europe have intensified.  Russia’s foreign minister Lavrov recently said that Moscow is already in a “real war” with NATO and the EU, while French President Macron and British Prime Minister Starmer have retaliated in a war of words that have further enflamed tensions.  In Ukraine, Russia continues to dominate the Eastern front through attritional warfare devoid of explosive breakthroughs but nonetheless is making territorial gains.  Less publicized is the recent warning from the IAEA concerning detonated drones near the perimeter of a nuclear power plant located in southern Ukraine.  All of this points towards escalation, the blurring of battle lines, and diminishing hopes for diplomatic repair or off-ramps.

NATO is in reaction mode again this week as yet more drone incursions have pierced into Polish airspace.  This calls into question the true readiness of NATO in what has always been a contested region in and around the Suwalki Gap.  After the September 10 strikes, several drone parts have recently been discovered in Eastern Poland near the border with Belarus – the village of Czosnowka has been named frequently.  Czosnowka is a bit further South from Suwalki but still highlights the connection that Belarus has to the incursions, Belarus after all is part of the Union State compact established with Russia and often serves as a staging point or launching point for incursions.

My all-expense paid trip to Afghanistan included an eight month tour in the mountainous Kunar Province.  This province is not for the faint hearted, it sits directly in line with the Hindu-Kush Mountains amid extensive cave networks, impenetrable terrain and is home to multiple insurgent groups.  It is the favored spot of Taliban forces, Al-Qaeda fighters, and Mujahedeen militias. 

In The Falkland Islands War_Part One I begin a deep dive into all aspects of this short conflict between Argentina and England. Historical background, the Argentine invasion of the Falklands, British Logistics and the Argentine Junta are covered in a fair amount of detail.

This 2025 update on Russia is from a geo-political perspective to include a strategic to operational overview of their military and what’s new in terms of strategy and approach.  My sources include the US DNI Annual Threat Assessment, released a couple of months ago and the DC based think tank – the Center for European Policy Analysis or CEPA’s recent paper titled “Russia’s Strategy and Military Thinking: Evolving Discourse by 2025”.  Also, the US Army’s ATP 7-100.1 which was released in 2024.

The PRC now routinely operates within a spectrum of Gray Zone activities that it executes in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.  The Rand Corporation recently published a report titled: “Understanding and Countering China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations”.  This report is focused on China’s campaign of coercive activities that lie in the “operational space between peace and war”.  More and more, we are seeing China exert control in the region while largely avoiding a conventional response from the international community.  This is because China has mastered the art of employing gray zone operations which skirt the boundaries of kinetic actions.

The Houthis are a shia muslim Extremist Organization  originating from Northern Yemen.  They have been involved in multiple conflicts within Yemen for several decades.  The Houthi movement began in the 1990s as a revivalist movement aimed at protecting Zaidi religious and cultural identities.  The Houthis advocate for greater autonomy for Yemen's Zaidi-populated regions and oppose what they see as foreign interference in Yemen's affairs.  They have positioned themselves against Israel, the US and Western democracies in general and more recently Saudi Arabia.

The Western hemisphere’s premier political – military alliance; NATO.  The 32-member political-military alliance is committed to the principle that an attack against one of its members is considered an attack against all – this is the underlying principle of COLLECTIVE DEFENSE and enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.