Throughout modern military history, Russian leaders have had a distinct edge on Western leaders in their ability to employ strategic imagination in all aspects of their  decision making.  Western democratic leaders are limited by public opinion, law and bureaucratic constraints which stifle bold leadership actions.  By contrast, autocratic systems allow leaders to act decisively without public consensus or government compromise, thus enabling leaders like Putin and Stalin to execute bold strategies.

(U) Located in China’s Xinjiang region, the Taklamakan Desert is home to a vast PLA training area used for missile and strike training. In the SE corner of the desert, one training range appears to have a full scale outline of the American Ford class nuclear powered aircraft carrier.

(U) The U.S. has burned through a large share of its 155mm artillery ammunition stockpiles as a result of over committing to Ukraine since 2022. Demand has outstripped US production capacity and unless drastic measures are applied, it will take years to rebuild reserves. This shortage leaves U.S. forces less prepared for other conflicts and puts strain on NATO allies, who face similar challenges.

In this rudimentary analysis, I provide a cursory review of the problem, explain the “so what” and conclude with a recommendation for DoD to enact moving forward. This no frills analysis avoids technical explanations and acquisition jargon in an effort to quickly define the problem and devise a strategy.

This analysis is a response to a recently published Defense News article written by Noah Robertson titled: “They’ve Grown Back: How Russia Surprised the West and Rebuilt its Force” This news has strategic implications both short term and medium term that should be at first acknowledged, sure I am rooting for Ukraine too but continual under-reporting, cherry picking and false reporting will not affect the operational-strategic situation in the least. This analysis examines non traditional interventions vice the default escalate to de-escalate methodologies.

This 2025 update on Russia is from a geo-political perspective to include a strategic to operational overview of their military and what’s new in terms of strategy and approach.  My sources include the US DNI Annual Threat Assessment, released a couple of months ago and the DC based think tank – the Center for European Policy Analysis or CEPA’s recent paper titled “Russia’s Strategy and Military Thinking: Evolving Discourse by 2025”.  Also, the US Army’s ATP 7-100.1 which was released in 2024.

The PRC now routinely operates within a spectrum of Gray Zone activities that it executes in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.  The Rand Corporation recently published a report titled: “Understanding and Countering China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations”.  This report is focused on China’s campaign of coercive activities that lie in the “operational space between peace and war”.  More and more, we are seeing China exert control in the region while largely avoiding a conventional response from the international community.  This is because China has mastered the art of employing gray zone operations which skirt the boundaries of kinetic actions.

The Houthis are a shia muslim Extremist Organization  originating from Northern Yemen.  They have been involved in multiple conflicts within Yemen for several decades.  The Houthi movement began in the 1990s as a revivalist movement aimed at protecting Zaidi religious and cultural identities.  The Houthis advocate for greater autonomy for Yemen's Zaidi-populated regions and oppose what they see as foreign interference in Yemen's affairs.  They have positioned themselves against Israel, the US and Western democracies in general and more recently Saudi Arabia.