defenseanalysis.org

The defense of a nation should be focused on deterrence. Non-kinetic effects, appropriately applied are far more effective than the current default setting of “escalate to de-escalate”.

Why is Military Fiction included?

Military Fiction Scenarios on defenseanalysis.org are rooted in real-world defense analyses:

  1. The 2025 US Department of Homeland Security “Homeland Threat Assessment

2. The Institute of Defense Analysis (IDA)       “United States-China Gray Zone Conflict in the 2027 to 2032 Battlespace

Four (4) dominant scenarios that stress different dimensions.

  1. High-intensity gray zone conflict with China (2027- 2032) — the utility of military fiction: tests surge, industrial base, contested logistics, space/cyber-attack, escalation control.

  2. Violent Extremist Organization (VEO) incursions into North Americathe utility of military fiction: decision making amid extreme or novel adversary behaviors, model unconventional threats, inter-agency coordination & preparedness stressed.

  3. Homeland critical infrastructure cyberattack — the utility of military fiction: tests dual-use, civil-military, governance, legal adjustments.

  4. Climate-driven humanitarian surge — the utility of military fiction: tests logistics resilience, energy transition.

Military Fiction

Operation Scorpion Strike


The NADC has tracked the Islamiyah Jeddah to an isolated and barren desert location on the East coast of Baja California. The joint force is comprised primarily of augmenting marines from the 7th Operational Group out of Twenty-Nine Palms, CA. The marines were not meant to comprise the main body but they performed so well earlier in joint training exercises in Northern Mexico that they were requested by 2 NADC operational commanders for participation in Operation Scorpion Strike. The marines will establish security in a base of operations that the NADC will occupy for the first stage of this strike, there the NADC will launch precision strikes into IJ territory with the intent of eliminating IJ leadership, key resources and a weapons cache. Later stages will include exhaustive sweeps of the region to ensure that covert elements have been flushed out and removed altogether. The destruction of all IJ assets has been authorized as well as the elimination of any armed combatants that resist the removal of assets.

Operation Trident Strike


Joint NADC.-Mexican and US maritime forces conduct a coordinated interception and interdiction operation off the coast of Ensenada, Baja California to locate, identify, and seize the Hai Yuan vessel suspected of transporting an Improvised Nuclear Device (IND) on behalf of the violent extremist organization Islamiyah Jeddah. The mission will prevent the weapon’s transfer to land and ultimately for use against the city of Phoenix, Arizona.

REPORTS

Iran Defense Profile


This report was published on YouTube on February 22, 2026. Many Americans view Iran and by extension its military as backwards, unsophisticated and largely incapable of defending themselves from superpowers, like the United States. While Iran is not a serious competitor to the United States and certainly not a near peer, they do possess a large, diversified missile force with an indigenous long-range UAV fleet and they have adapted defense strategies that many analysts would consider to be advanced. Iran is not Syria, or Libya, meaning that Iran is not a shell of its former self, it’s not a vassal state, Iran is a sovereign, modern nation of 90 million people with world class scientists and academic institutions. This brief presents an honest look at some of Iran's defensive capabilities as of February 22, 2026.

The Houthis


This report includes an overview of the Houthis with historical context, their support network, capabilities, locations and current operations. The Houthis are no longer a small movement of the Zaydis with a few dozen lightly armed Shias. The Houthis are a large, structured and well funded force with regional support from Iran.

NATO’s New Force Model


This report from 2024 covers the Deterrence and Defence of the Euro-Atlantic Area (DDA) which is discussed at length to include the fiscal responsibilities of member nations, descriptions of force allocation methods and NATO's newest Allied Reaction Force or ARF. This brief is UNCLASSIFIED with exclusive use of open source material.