In recent news, it was revealed that the United States may provide Ukraine with Tomahawk missile systems, Tomahawks are subsonic, terrain following, long range precision strike missile systems.  These systems come in multiple variants and are further categorized by “blocks” which indicate the level of modernization.  It is assumed that the Tomahawks that are to be provided to Ukraine are land-based systems of the block V modernization category.  (U) The block V category includes improved navigation, increased range and communications with datalink technologies. Providing these systems to Ukraine is a bad idea, a provocation that may lead to an escalation that we don’t want… 

Throughout modern military history, Russian leaders have had a distinct edge on Western leaders in their ability to employ strategic imagination in all aspects of their  decision making.  Western democratic leaders are limited by public opinion, law and bureaucratic constraints which stifle bold leadership actions.  By contrast, autocratic systems allow leaders to act decisively without public consensus or government compromise, thus enabling leaders like Putin and Stalin to execute bold strategies.

Transnational criminal networks are comprised of drug cartels, human-trafficking rings, money-laundering enterprises, arms traffickers, and sophisticated cybercriminal groups.  These organizations have grown in scale, lethality, and operational sophistication. The problem now sits at the intersection of law enforcement, homeland security, and national defense.

(U) Located in China’s Xinjiang region, the Taklamakan Desert is home to a vast PLA training area used for missile and strike training. In the SE corner of the desert, one training range appears to have a full scale outline of the American Ford class nuclear powered aircraft carrier.

(U) The U.S. has burned through a large share of its 155mm artillery ammunition stockpiles as a result of over committing to Ukraine since 2022. Demand has outstripped US production capacity and unless drastic measures are applied, it will take years to rebuild reserves. This shortage leaves U.S. forces less prepared for other conflicts and puts strain on NATO allies, who face similar challenges.

In this rudimentary analysis, I provide a cursory review of the problem, explain the “so what” and conclude with a recommendation for DoD to enact moving forward. This no frills analysis avoids technical explanations and acquisition jargon in an effort to quickly define the problem and devise a strategy.

This analysis is a response to a recently published Defense News article written by Noah Robertson titled: “They’ve Grown Back: How Russia Surprised the West and Rebuilt its Force” This news has strategic implications both short term and medium term that should be at first acknowledged, sure I am rooting for Ukraine too but continual under-reporting, cherry picking and false reporting will not affect the operational-strategic situation in the least. This analysis examines non traditional interventions vice the default escalate to de-escalate methodologies.

This report and analysis covers a non-terrestrial propulsion technology—designated the Gravity Lens Drive (GLD), which is under evaluation by undisclosed research entities. The system reportedly employs a stabilized synthetic isotope of Element 115 as a reactor fuel, enabling generation of localized negative energy fields. These fields can be shaped by gravitational wave amplifiers to create directed warping of space-time. This analysis concludes with a rudimentary evaluation of the claim versus modern physics with assignment to an arbitrary value along a believability scale.

From the GAO: Among the 30 MDAPs assessed in both our current and last report, 16 programs reported a cost decrease and 13 reported an increase in the last year (see fig. 9). Of the16 programs that reported a decrease, three were due to reduced quantities. Program officials for the Navy’s FFG 62—the program with the largest cost decrease—attributed the decrease to accounting changes, not savings from efficiencies. Specifically, these officials noted that the cost decrease is due, in part, to the Navy’s revised approach for accounting for inflation. The Army’s CH-47F program—the second largest decrease—is updating its cost estimates as part of a new program baseline.

The Department of Defense (DOD) continues to struggle with delivering innovative technologies quickly and within budget. Since its last annual assessment, GAO found:

• Program development delays and inflation, among other things, contributed to cost growth in the major defense acquisition program (MDAP) portfolio.

• Programs spent development time on efforts with low levels of maturity while using the middle tier of acquisition (MTA) pathway intended for speed.

• Future major weapon acquisitions (newer efforts that have yet to begin on a pathway) did not take full advantage of product development practices that lead to efficiencies.

The Department of Defense (DOD) considers reliance on foreign sources for items it procures a national security risk. DOD estimates that over 200,000 suppliers help produce advanced weapon systems and noncombat goods. The primary procurement database for the federal government, however, provides little visibility into where these goods are manufactured or whether materials and parts suppliers are domestic or foreign.

People’s Liberation Army Navy, or PLAN, officers are advocating a systematic attempt to destroy America’s undersea sensor network in time of war. This includes destroying, sabotaging or spoofing underwater microphones using a variety of countermeasures, from undersea drones to China’s huge fleet of commercial fishing vessels.