NATO Update
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a 32-member political-military alliance is committed to the principle that an attack against one of its members is considered an attack against all – this is the underlying principle of COLLECTIVE DEFENSE and enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. For the record, NATO has only invoked Article 5 once, that was in response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US. It’s common knowledge that the US has historically been the strongest member nation of NATO but with Canada, the 2 nations build a transatlantic link that steers policy and defense concepts focused on the larger Euro-Atlantic Area…
In 2022, a Strategic Concept was adopted and published that laid down the Alliance’s core tasks and principles. The core tasks are: deterrence and defense, crisis prevention and management and cooperative security. The Deterrence and Defence of the Euro-Atlantic Area or DDA is more focused on addressing threats from Russia through deterrence by conducting multi-domain operations. That is dominating on land, air, sea, space and in cyber space…
The DDA methodology is different because it focuses on modernization of equipment and strategy in countering the complex threats of the 21st century. For context, NATO’s dated Cold-War mindset was previously focused on crisis response and containment whereas the DDA methodology embraces bolder deterrence methods. This does not mean that NATO is war mongering, but rather, practicing stronger methods to deter future conflict(s) and create off ramps if escalatory pressure is applied…
Exercises in 2024 are testing the reforms at the headquarters and regional plan levels while giving partner nations an opportunity to learn the structures and mechanisms driving decision making, deployments and operations.
Now for the controversial part of this discussion, do you think that Trump’s possible return to office may have incentivized NATO to reform and adopt a bolder deterrence posture? I don’t know, but there certainly is a lot of historical context from his presidency that would certainly merit that discussion…that may be driving a deeper discussion about the security and defense of Europe in 2025 and beyond, especially as the US Presidential election draws closer. Over the years, Trump has been very critical of NATO and particularly concerned with each member nation’s fiscal responsibility to invest 2 percent of their GDP to defense. In 2014 during Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, NATO member states agreed to contribute 2 percent of their economic output to their militaries. The response was well received but not executed, in fact, three years after the agreement in 2017 during Trump’s presidency, only 4 partner nations had met the requirement, in 2024, that figure has now risen to 23 of 32, making 2024 a year of action for NATO. This may all be circumstantial, but it does indirectly represent that NATO and the nation states do seem to be committed to building an alliance that doesn’t depend on the BIG American umbrella if Trump returns to the Presidency.
Even so, the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has drastically changed the threat dynamic as the fear of a nuclear strike has returned to Europe. Russia possesses 6,000 nuclear warheads which is nearly half of the global stockpile. It’s not only Putin that Europe fears but Medvedev, the Head of the Russian Security Council has threatened NATO and Europe, their deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus has been an alarming escalation this year.
However, Russian analysts do not predict that Russia will broadly invade Europe or directly engage NATO but there are indications and warnings that a partial incursion into Estonia could be attempted. Nevertheless, the nuclear threat is real and for now, NATO and the EU are looking to France for the Nuclear deterrence capability in 2025 and beyond. France is the only other nation in Europe that has nuclear warheads, they have about 300. What NATO is also very concerned with is losing the US Nuclear TRIAD structure, the US Triad is the largest, so.. let’s take a look at US Triad delivery systems.
I personally do not see Trump removing unique US capabilities from the larger NATO arsenal, but I understand the anxiety in Europe and I see a clear signal from Europeans though NATO’s reinvigorated and more robust alliance in 2024.
Ok, let’s get back to NATO’s force model for 2024 and talk about `some of the new force structures and touch on command and control as well. The alliance’s force structure has been reinvigorated to better respond to specific threats, namely the threat from Russia. As discussed, the Deterrence and Defence of the Euro-Atlantic Area or DDA is the foundation to a series of plans … The plans are regionally based and specific to the dynamics of each region. This generates a unified Force Structure Requirement or FSR that better serves the unified purpose of the DDA. The FSR outlines specific units, equipment and capabilities that are required by region to fulfill the deterrence and defense of that region while also contributing to the overall NATO presence. The FSR is critical to get right and get right early as all member nations will retain forces for their national defense and national priorities, they aren’t all going to be TOA’d.
Under this model, readiness is more important than ever and NATO has addressed this through the implementation of a tiered system of readiness. The tiers will be applied across the three sub-regions of Europe; 1) the Arctic, 2) the North Atlantic, and 3) Southern Europe.
Tier One includes an initial fighting force of roughly 100,000 troops that are to be ready with 10 days of notification.
Tier Two forces double to 200,000 troops that are to be ready within 10 to 30 days, these troops are more of a robust multi-domain force in terms of capabilities.
Tier Three forces bring the corps level assets and number 500,000, Tier Three forces are to be ready within 30 to 180 days.
In addition to these forces, in 2024, NATO is activating the Allied Reaction Force or ARF. This is a quick reaction force that differs from the previous Very High Readiness Joint Task Force or VJTF because the ARF is lighter, quicker and consists of multi-domain capabilities whereas the VJTF was solely based in land, air and maritime formations. The ARF’s cyber and space elements will be drawn directly from allied nations that have these capabilities as augments.
ARF force sourcing is completed two years in advance of readiness windows in order to allow for allies to prepare their forces and be certified by NATO authorities. Each ARF activation window runs from July of year one through June of year two.
NATO now has three Joint Force Command Headquarters or JFCs, one in Brunssum, Netherlands, the second for SE Europe located in Naples, Italy and the newest JFC is in the United States in Norfolk, VA. which was activated in 2021. JFC Brunnsum has the most significant span of control of the three as this JFC is responsible for Poland and the Baltic states.
The Supreme Allied Commander Europe or (SACEUR) is one of Two strategic commanders and is the head of Allied Command Operations. He actually reports to the Military Committee or MC before conducting any NATO military operations. The billet is usually an American that is dual hatted as the Commander of the US European Command. Under the recent alert system modifications, SACEUR will have increased authority to enable operations in activating the allied force structures sooner in the event of hostilities or aggressions directed at the Euro Atlantic. Traditionally, SACEUR would have to follow a time consuming process to receive full authority from the North Atlantic Council or NAC and he still does, but in the post February 2022 Europe, it is clear that activation processes must be expedited in certain circumstances for the ARF and possibly for Tier One forces.
I am going to stop here, there is certainly a lot more to talk about as I have barely scratched the surface of the new NATO Force model in 2024, it’s modernization and all of the new systems in place.
